For this post, I'm only looking at regular foot units from established armies. No highlanders, tribesmen, clubmen or the like, not even skirmishers or commanded shot (at least not yet).
The thing that really jumped out at us in our game was that all units of a type have the same chance to activate. This didn't feel right, as raw troops should be hard to motivate to move around, while veteran troops should almost anticipate their orders. In game terms, raw troops should have a higher activation roll than veterans.
My feeling is that raw troops should have target numbers around 7+, and veterans around 5+ for most activation rolls. An exception is for shooting, where a slightly higher target number can reflect all sorts of things that could slow down reloading and firing muskets. For shoot value, I'll stick with 7+ except for veterans who will get a 6+ to reflect their experience (always having an extra flint, clean barrels, spare powder and whatnot that less experienced troops won't).
Grenadiers should be capable of the same things as line infantry but should be hard core at attacking, much like clansmen or forlorn hope.
Attack value, defence value and shooting value will be adjusted as well. I think shot in PL is intended only for defence, so have a very poor attack value, but by this time shot will be expected to carry out assaults on enemy positions (once they have been suitably softened by shot and artillery).
Morale values for the game currently vary from 3+ for highly motivated types (eg gallopers) to 5+ for least motivated (clubmen, artillery). I'll stay within these limits as well.
Here are the trial values I am considering:
Line Infantry (raw)
A7+ AV6
M7+ DV5+
S7+ SV6
Morale 5+ Move 6"
Stamina 2
Close order, first salvo
Line Infantry (regular)
A6+ AV5+
M5+ DV5+
S7+ SV5+
Morale 4+ Move 6"
Stamina 2
Close order, first salvo
Line Infantry (veteran)
A6+ AV5+
M5+ DV4+
S6+ SV5+
Morale 4+ Move 6"
Stamina 2
Close order, first salvo
Grenadiers
A5+ AV4+
M5+ DV4+
S6+ SV5+
Morale 3+ Move 6"
Stamina 2
Close order, first salvo, ferocious
Mixed pike and shot units should be better at close combat with reduced effectiveness at shooting. Kevin's suggestion was that P&S units will only roll 8D6 for shooting (4D6 at half strength). My proposal is that they roll 9D6 at full strength and 6D6 at half strength.
Pike and Shot
A5+ AV4+
M5+ DV4+
S7+ SV5+
Morale 3+ Move 6"
Stamina 2
Close order, first salvo, 9D6/6D6 for shooting
As I mentioned, these are my preliminary ideas. Some things to consider further:
Should raw shot get the close order and first salvo?
Should there be a veteran pike and shot? Kevin probably thinks so, but the profile above is pretty hardcore already IMO.
I haven't suggested any points values yet. I'd like to playtest these and see how they go.
Boring statistics stuff follows:
I ran a few numbers to figure out the odds of getting particular results. For starters, the easy numbers were odds to activate with different target numbers:
| Target Number | Probability (%) | |
| 2+ | 100.00 | |
| 3+ | 97.22 | |
| 4+ | 91.67 | |
| 5+ | 83.33 | |
| 6+ | 72.22 | |
| 7+ | 58.33 | |
| 8+ | 41.67 | |
| 9+ | 27.78 | |
| 10+ | 16.67 | |
| 11+ | 8.33 | |
| 12+ | 2.78 |
From the above, a target number of 5+ will let the troops activate most of the time (>80%). 6+ activation will be successful almost 3/4 of the time, and 7+ will activate more often than not. 8+ (used by artillery, for example) will fail more often than it succeeds. I am content to stay within this range for the activation rolls.
For morale tests, they seem very good until you realise that there will usually be penalties associated with them (-1 for each casualty!). And a bad roll can still upset your plans, as I found out when my grenadiers rolled snake eyes on their first morale test and fled the table. So I'm going to follow the lead from the rules and keep morale levels in the 3+ (for the most confident troops) to 5+ (for the unsteady ones, like clubmen).
A trickier calculation is the number of successes one can expect on 12 dice (or 6 dice when half strength). I can figure that out without much bother for up to three dice, but after that the math gets really complicated to figure exactly. But using approximations, I figure that this table should be reasonably close:
Target number: Successes with 12 dice: Successes with 6 dice:
3+ around 8 around 4
4+ around 6 around 3
5+ around 4 around 2
6 around 2 around 1
Target number: Successes with 8 dice: Successes with 4 dice:
3+ around 5 maybe 3
4+ around 4 around 2
5+ 2 or 3 1 or 2
6 1 or 2 1 if you're lucky
I could have done a bunch of math with regressions and things to get percentage chances of getting at least 1 success up to 12 successes for each roll (the odds of getting 12 sixes with 12 dice is about one in 2 billion), but for practical purposes the above should be good enough.
So, if your opponent has stamina 2 (like most infantry) rolling 12 dice needing 4+, you'll likely take out 3 troops, but only 2 if he's stamina 3 and only 1 if he's stamina 4. Raw infantry needing 6 to hit will probably only get two hits, which could only take out a single infantryman in the open, and would need to be lucky to take out a stamina 3 cavalryman or infantry in cover. And once you are at half strength and rolling 6 dice, then your chance of hurting your opponent really drops off.
When we look at the reduced number of potential successes for shooting with 8 or 4 dice, then success rates really drop off. Reducing number of dice for shooting really penalises the pike and shot unit. I would argue at least that the half strength shooting should still roll 6 dice (on the theory that everyone who can will pick up a musket when the unit takes casualties, and when shooting is needed) and reduce full strength shooting dice to 9 rather than 8.
Note that these are preliminary ideas and I welcome all comments!
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